Briefing on Current Political Situation in Burma and Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship

27 May 2025, Kuala Lumpur – INITIATE.MY, in collaboration with Bait Al-Amanah, convened a closed-door policy briefing titled “Myanmar’s Evolving Political Landscape – Emerging Trends and 2025 Outlook.”. Aizat Shamsuddin, Founder and director of INITIATE.MY, facilitated the session, which featured Myanmar policy analyst Arkar Hein and brought together representatives from the Malaysian government, diplomatic community, think tanks, and civil society organisations.

The briefing examined major political and security shifts in Myanmar since the military coup in 2021. Over the past three years, resistance actors—including the National Unity Government (NUG), ethnic revolutionary organisations (EROs), and people’s defence forces (PDFs)—have expanded control across liberated areas. These groups are coordinating efforts to provide governance, security, and services rooted in federal democratic principles.  Three emerging governance models: a top-down federalism driven by the NUG, grassroots ethnic-led systems, and autonomous regional administrations. 

Discussions also highlighted:

• China-brokered ceasefire in northern Shan State, which primarily aims to protect Beijing’s strategic interests along the border, lacks longer stability and risks entrenching militarised stalemates.
• The junta’s planned 2025 election also drew criticism for its lack of inclusivity, absence of nationwide stability, and the continued detention of over 29,000 political prisoners.
• Resistance-led governance models are gaining traction, undermining the junta’s legitimacy and reflecting a deeper societal rejection of military rule. This transformation presents long-term implications for regional policy and engagement.
• On the Rohingya issue, there are signs of a generational shift towards more inclusive governance among resistance actors, though serious protection risks remain.
• The junta’s exploitation of illicit economies—including scam operations and narcotics trafficking—as key revenue streams, alongside continued earnings from offshore oil and gas.

The briefing generated several forward-looking recommendations for Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship in 2025:

• Prioritising Myanmar-led inclusive dialogue
• ensuring cross-border humanitarian assistance reaches resistance-held areas
• maintaining engagement with legitimate actors such as the NUG and EROs
• Malaysia’s proposals for a permanent ASEAN special envoy and its dual-track diplomacy are welcomed

INITIATE.MY views Myanmar’s crisis as emblematic of broader regional challenges where authoritarianism, state fragility, and transnational crime intersect. The organisation continues to advocate for regional responses grounded in the protection of human security in line with international human rights and humanitarian norms.

Policymakers, diplomats, geopolitical analysts, and civil society gathered for a closed-door briefing on Myanmar’s evolving political landscape and the implications for Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship in 2025.